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Thread: State Income Tax Increase

  1. #31
    Forum All Star middlein87's Avatar
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    Posh YMCA District
    Quote Originally Posted by paul kuhn View Post
    Checked on Zillow and a quick glance confirms that, home prices there seem pretty comparable to GE.
    I'm not clued into the Ann Arbor areas, but I'd say that home prices are pretty comparable in the Detroit suburbs that Glen Ellynites would be interested in. The taxes, however, are much lower.

  2. #32
    Pauls comment just struck a cord with me as I hear so much about leaving Illinois to avoid taxes and I don't think it's that easy. There are a lot of cost of living and personal value decisions that make it difficult to realize savings if you compare apples to apples. Saving a hundred or two or 3 a month isn't much if utilities, auto/health/property insurance, food, etc., plus the intangibles like access to excellent medical care (always impressed by Chicagoland medical care), road maintenance and real estate development planning, quality schools, etc. add up to more $. I just don't think there is a free lunch out there. Downsizing your residence and moving to an area with fewer services works but is not a fair comparison as justification why the Chicago suburbs are is so expensive. Which is not to say IL does not have a horrible debt problem but at least it's not Kansas- Brownback cut taxes, blew the budget surplus, sank the state into debt and it's not like Kansas is an economic engine of the country, which IL is. Thats gotta hurt. IL just has to figure out who is going to ante up the tax money because you can't do it by more cuts to spending and borrowing alone.

  3. #33
    I agree to a certain extent. Taxes may play a role, maybe not a large one but they do count. When you're looking for a house one thing you have to notice is the the total cost of owning one and taxes have come into play there especially in a state like Illinois where property taxes are a major factor in home ownership. It's very possible to end up paying more in property taxes than what you originally paid for in a house.

    People like to bring up Kansas as an example of what happens when you lower taxes but Kansas has seen its population increase a small increase but better than Illinois continued five years of decline. Illinois despite years of increasing taxes has 15B in unpaid bills along with a 135B of unfunded pension liabilities. So its not as if Illinois tax increases have done the state a lot of good. I don't if you can truly consider Illinois an economic engine of this country. Chicago home prices really haven't kept pace with the national average. Look at recent Case-Shiller reports for further proof. Chicago suburbs are certainly less expensive than California and New Jersey.

    Property values tend to follow economic improvement, demographics and job creation. Illinois seems to be lagging in all three. I agree that a few hundred a month may not be worth but when you start looking at thousands then the equations change.

    But several high tax states Illinois, New Jersey, New York are slowing down while low tax states like Texas and Florida are showing gains.

  4. #34
    The country economically lives off of the GDPs of about 5 states Illinois being the 5th largest economy. Actually the size of Saudi Arabia I think. Plenty of $ in IL, just a matter of who pays taxes.

    A couple observations- Many areas people are moving for low taxes are now struggling to provide the services demanded by the new residents (e.g. Austin, other Texas urban areas). It's fluid and something to consider when moving to the "low tax" area of the country. Same thing happened in DuPage and Kane as they urbanized- taxes go up.

    Climate change is already causing population shifts largely some income levels of population beginning to move north out of bad climates areas/high homeowners insurance. Heck NE IL is is predicted to have a climate similar to St Louis within 10-20 years- lots of 90s. While the NC coast may be the fastest growing area of the country I think that area and much of the south is a game of musical chair real estate. Someone's eventually getting stuck with big losses in property value. Sort of like "I know it's in a floodplain but it won't flood while I own it'"

    Whether a states pop is going up or down is a good or bad thing can depend on whos moving in or out- losing unemployed or population from dying rural ag areas (see most midwest states) is not necessarily a bad thing economically.

  5. #35
    The top five states by GDP California,Texas, New York, Florida, Illinois account for some 40% of the nations GDP. However the largest gains have come from California, Florida and Texas. Illinois has been growing at below the national average. Currently Illinois ranks number six in terms of population but if population trends continue it's GDP ranking will fall to sixth. Also States like Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona , Colorado are all growing at much faster rates than Illinois.

    Taxes and other costs will probably have to go up in those states seeing significant population increases and increased in-migration however those tax increases will pay for current and future growth. Illinois has significant legacy costs. It's taxes will have to increase to pay down those costs.

    I don't think its ever good to have years of population decline. It will lead to fewer Federal tax dollars loss of congressional representation. And I don't think it's strictly poor rural people leaving . I think ninety of the 102 Counties in Illinois have seen their population decline over the last several years. Cook County lost the most people of any County in the nation. Chicago has seen its population decline three straight years. Chicago public schools have seen their enrollment decline by over 20,000 in the last several years. Even DuPage county saw a small population decline. Almost half of all Illinois high graduates leave Illinois to attend college. In short the Demographics for Illinois aren't good.

    But the economics maybe worse. Illinois has over 135B in unfunded pension liabilities which probably even understates that . Since Illinois insists on believing that it can gain seven percent ROI when its much closer to five percent. If it were to use more realistic projections it would probably be at 150-160B underfunded. Not to mention that it has 15B in unpaid bills. And Pritzker's decision to not raise taxes now but to hope that the progressive income tax will pass will just put Illinois that much deeper in debt. One reason Illinois has the nations lowest bond rating. So other states may have to increase their taxes but so will Illinois and it will do so just to pay down it's debt . Not to invest in its future. But to pay for thirty years of bad decisions.

    The last I heard about Climate Change for this area is to expect colder and wetter winters and springs. Not exactly a reason to relocate here.

  6. #36
    My point which apparently I'm struggling to make is not to deny that IL is in serious trouble but that much of the country is. The grass is not necessarily greener everywhere but IL and what appears to be a deal today may not be tomorrow as predicting the future in this day and age is like predicting the direction of Tesla stock- except IL is getting hotter- soon in the latest climate report Trump tried to hide.

  7. #37
    Illinois is also getting deeper in debt. You can make some good guesses about Illinois future based on it's current indebtedness, and past decisions that have gotten Illinois into it's current situation. The fact that the same people who are in charge now are pretty much the same people who got us here doesn't exactly give one a great deal of confidence.

    A large number of people of various economic and social classes must feel that the grass is indeed greener on the other side or they wouldn't be leaving.

    Since Illinois is so deeply in debt and not does appear to be able to grow its economy enough to deal with its debt then it will have to allocate more resources to pay for it's debt. Either by increasing taxes or cutting services.

  8. #38
    Forum All Star GE Fan's Avatar
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    Glen Ellyn
    We’re going to quickly find out how long Terra Costa Howard wants to stay in Springfield.

  9. #39
    Democrats have a 74-44 margin in the House and a 40-18 margin in the Senate. Veto proof majorities in both not that they need it since every state wide office is also held by them. With such a large majority individual members maybe able to pick and choose which taxes they will support and they may get a few Republicans to joint them in a few tax hikes.

    Democrats ran on a platform of higher taxes And they pretty much swept the state. So if anyone is surprised that Democrats are pushing forward a bunch of higher taxes I don't think you were paying attention last year. And didn't get what the majority of the voters in Illinois were saying. So the Democrats are doing pretty much what they said they would do. Only real question I guess is how many more will they come up with and how long before the Progressive tax impacts more and more taxpayers. Some analysts have suggested that even with a progressive tax, Illinois still won't have a truly balanced budget.

    Terra Howard may only be there for one term but making 140,000 for two years of part time work isn't that bad of a deal .

  10. #40
    Forum Hall of Famer DTM's Avatar
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    Mile High
    plus pension.....

  11. #41

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