Results 1 to 7 of 7

Thread: D89 to tackle school finances, enrollment growth

  1. #1

    D89 to tackle school finances, enrollment growth


  2. #2
    Forum All Star DTM's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    Location
    Mile High
    Posts
    2,928
    with revenues of ~$40 million and reserves of $14 million (35%), they can afford to spend down the reserves for a while....however, if they do pass an operational referendum, if they can match D41 tax rate then the chances of consolidation rise!

  3. #3
    Forum All Star middlein87's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    Location
    Posh YMCA District
    Posts
    2,070
    District demographer John Kasarda has estimated enrollment could reach 2,457 students in the 2021-22 school year -- or 600 more from a low point in 2012-13.
    Where have I heard this before?

  4. #4
    Forum All Star DTM's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    Location
    Mile High
    Posts
    2,928
    Quote Originally Posted by middlein87 View Post
    Where have I heard this before?
    Best thing in the world is to be a contractor. People pay you to tell them what they want to hear....has he ever projected a downward trend??

  5. #5
    Forum All Star middlein87's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    Location
    Posh YMCA District
    Posts
    2,070
    Quote Originally Posted by DTM View Post
    .has he ever projected a downward trend??
    He has predicted downward trends - it just is in the same report as he predicts upward trends. As you'll remember, the report he gave to D41 had a "high" "low" and "middle" prediction. The "middle" was usually considered his "most likely" to occur. Of course, it was always the "high" predictions that got all the play.

    This was the D41 graph as posted in another thread. It has two sets of Kasarda projections, one done in 2007, one done in 2012, and the "Actual" student population.

    Attachment 128


    His D89 report (2016 update) can be found at this link. He does again have a High/Middle/Low. It looks like a similar pattern, with the elementary "low" dropping in the near term and the elementary "high" increasing int the near term. His middle school numbers increase under all high/low/middle scenarios although the "low" could be just as easily described as "flat" in the near term. As his report will tell you, the reliability of the projections get worse in the long term.
    Last edited by middlein87; 05-23-2018 at 10:32 AM.

  6. #6
    Forum All Star DTM's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    Location
    Mile High
    Posts
    2,928
    Quote Originally Posted by middlein87 View Post
    He has predicted downward trends - it just is in the same report as he predicts upward trends. As you'll remember, the report he gave to D41 had a "high" "low" and "middle" prediction. The "middle" was usually considered his "most likely" to occur. Of course, it was always the "high" predictions that got all the play.

    This was the D41 graph as posted in another thread. It has two sets of Kasarda projections, one done in 2007, one done in 2012, and the "Actual" student population.

    Attachment 128
    True. Curiously, 89 never mentioned the middle and lower bound projections...

  7. #7
    I thought D89 was able to add full-day kindergarten because of retirements and attrition a few years ago. I wonder if that's adding to the problem? It's not mentioned in the article though.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •