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Thread: D89 to tackle school finances, enrollment growth

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    D89 to tackle school finances, enrollment growth


  2. #2
    Forum All Star DTM's Avatar
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    with revenues of ~$40 million and reserves of $14 million (35%), they can afford to spend down the reserves for a while....however, if they do pass an operational referendum, if they can match D41 tax rate then the chances of consolidation rise!

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    Forum All Star middlein87's Avatar
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    District demographer John Kasarda has estimated enrollment could reach 2,457 students in the 2021-22 school year -- or 600 more from a low point in 2012-13.
    Where have I heard this before?

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    Forum All Star DTM's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by middlein87 View Post
    Where have I heard this before?
    Best thing in the world is to be a contractor. People pay you to tell them what they want to hear....has he ever projected a downward trend??

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    Forum All Star middlein87's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DTM View Post
    .has he ever projected a downward trend??
    He has predicted downward trends - it just is in the same report as he predicts upward trends. As you'll remember, the report he gave to D41 had a "high" "low" and "middle" prediction. The "middle" was usually considered his "most likely" to occur. Of course, it was always the "high" predictions that got all the play.

    This was the D41 graph as posted in another thread. It has two sets of Kasarda projections, one done in 2007, one done in 2012, and the "Actual" student population.

    Attachment 128


    His D89 report (2016 update) can be found at this link. He does again have a High/Middle/Low. It looks like a similar pattern, with the elementary "low" dropping in the near term and the elementary "high" increasing int the near term. His middle school numbers increase under all high/low/middle scenarios although the "low" could be just as easily described as "flat" in the near term. As his report will tell you, the reliability of the projections get worse in the long term.
    Last edited by middlein87; 05-23-2018 at 10:32 AM.

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    Forum All Star DTM's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by middlein87 View Post
    He has predicted downward trends - it just is in the same report as he predicts upward trends. As you'll remember, the report he gave to D41 had a "high" "low" and "middle" prediction. The "middle" was usually considered his "most likely" to occur. Of course, it was always the "high" predictions that got all the play.

    This was the D41 graph as posted in another thread. It has two sets of Kasarda projections, one done in 2007, one done in 2012, and the "Actual" student population.

    Attachment 128
    True. Curiously, 89 never mentioned the middle and lower bound projections...

  7. #7
    I thought D89 was able to add full-day kindergarten because of retirements and attrition a few years ago. I wonder if that's adding to the problem? It's not mentioned in the article though.

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    Forum Hall of Famer Cliché's Avatar
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    District 89 to ask for tax hike on November ballot — Referendum question expected to request 40-cent tax rate increase _Suburban Life

    Excerpts....

    "In the face of increasing enrollment and costs, Community Consolidated School District 89 is expected to ask voters in the Nov. 6 election to approve a 40-cent tax rate increase.

    At their July 16 meeting, District 89 Board of Education members reached a consensus to put the referendum question on the ballot. Board members are expected to formally approve the question at their Aug. 20 meeting.

    The district has not sought a tax rate referendum in 32 years. Officials have estimated the owner of a $300,000 house would pay an additional $396 a year in taxes if the referendum were approved.

    District 89 serves more than 2,000 preschool through middle school students from Glen Ellyn, Lombard and Wheaton. The district operates four elementary schools and one middle school."

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    Forum All Star DTM's Avatar
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    I'm always skeptical of these dooms day scenarios.

    Here is what D89 said in 2011 when considering a referendum for a rate increase:

    Officials predict there will be $4.5 million in accumulated deficits over the next five years

    Here is what they said this week:

    The most recent financial projections show the district will have deficits between $1.4 million and $2.3 million over the next five fiscal years

    2011:

    district reserve funds -- which have been used to make up differences in each year's budget -- are only expected to last through the 2015-16 school year.
    This week:

    Officials had said the district would need to make about $1.2 million in cuts during the 2019-20 school year.

    Also from this week:

    The district has not sought a tax rate referendum in 32 years. Officials have estimated the owner of a $300,000 house would pay an additional $396 a year in taxes if the referendum were approved.


    Middle, will this bring their rate anywhere near parity to D41?
    Last edited by DTM; 08-09-2018 at 10:29 AM.

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